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World Bank: Ebola Countries Face $1.6B in Lost Economic Growth

The World Bank estimates Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone will lose more than $1.5 billion this year in economic growth due to Ebola. However, the economic effect on the West Africa region overall is now expected to be much lower than previous forecasts.

World Bank Senior Economist Dave Evans, co-author of the latest report on Ebola’s economic consequences, said the three worst affected countries have seen their economies contract. Prior to the outbreak, good economic growth had been expected.

“Essentially, the economic slowdown has been profound. This is a huge change for these economies and a real challenge,” he said.

When determining the economic impact of Ebola, the World Bank studies how people react to the disease.

“With the economic impact of Ebola it really comes through these reactions based on fear – or what we often call aversion behavior – people taking decisions to avoid any exposure to the disease," he said. "One of the challenges with that is that even as the disease starts to get under control and we have fewer cases, it doesn’t necessarily mean that investors immediately start making new plans to open new mines or set up new factories. The effects can be quite enduring.”

He said that phone surveys show that despite a decline in the number of new Ebola cases, job losses remain high and food insecurity persists.

Evans said there are previous examples of the effects of fear on behavior.

“I think it’s most reminiscent of what we saw with SARS and in the early days of AIDS where there was a lot of uncertainty about exactly how people could be exposed," he said. "And as a result, people take sometimes extreme reactions to avoid any interaction with these economies.”

In October, the World Bank estimated the West Africa region could suffer up to $25 billion in losses in 2015. But that estimate is now sharply lower.

Evans said, “What we’ve done is we’ve spoken to our economists in every country around sub-Saharan Africa. What we observe now is that the actual impact we’re seeing for all of Africa – not just West Africa – is more on the order of $500 million – very, very small -- even if we look at a bad case scenario. So, a scenario where the epidemic does spread more in the region we’re looking at about $6.2 billion for all of Africa. So that’s much, much smaller than the $25 billion we were talking about for just West Africa alone.”

The senior economist said the revised forecast is due to – what the bank calls -- “intensive global and national responses to the epidemic over the past several months.”

“The disease,” he said, “has been controlled significantly within the countries. So, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea have taken lots of action to improve safe burials, improve treatments, change behavior -- where people are careful to avoid exposure. And at the same time, neighboring countries have taken strong action to protect themselves. And we see this in Nigeria, Senegal and Mali.”

Nigeria, Senegal and Mali did have a small number of Ebola cases, but all three have been declared Ebola-free.

Evans cautioned, however, that until the number of Ebola cases reaches zero, there is always a chance that the epidemic could grow much worse again.

词汇解析

impact

难度：4星核心词汇，属常用3000词

英汉解释

n.影响；冲击力；撞击

vt.挤入；压紧；撞击；对 ... 发生影响

vi.冲击；撞击；产生影响

参考例句

用作名词 (n.)

But what these people fail to see is that international tourism may bring about a disastrous impact on our environment and local history.

但是这些人忽视了国际旅游可能会给当地环境和历史造成的灾难性的影响。

用作及物动词 (vt.)

There is a special tool to impact the road when it is under construction so the base is solid.

有种特殊的工具可以在道路修筑过程中将路面压紧，因此，路基是结实的。

用作不及物动词 (vi.)

The company's performance was impacted by the high value of the pound.

公司的业绩受到了英镑高值的冲击。

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react

难度：3星常用词汇，属常用6000词

英汉解释

v.反应；反攻

参考例句

用作动词 (v.)

The British would never react militarily to the invasion of the islands.

英国根本不会在他们侵占福岛后在军事上进行反攻。

The Glade Riders and Warhawk Riders are swift and skilful beastmasters, striking with speed before the foe can react.

森林骑兵和战鹰骑士都能灵巧地驾驭他们的坐骑，从而能迅速地攻击敌人，致使其不能反攻。

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avoid

难度：4星核心词汇，属常用3000词

英汉解释

vt.避免；逃避；[律]使无效；撤销

参考例句

用作及物动词 (vt.)

You should avoid unnecessary repetition.

你应避免不必要的重复。

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observe

难度：4星核心词汇，属常用3000词

英汉解释

v.观察；遵守；注意到；庆祝

参考例句

用作动词 (v.)

We have to observe carefully what's going on there.

我们必须仔细观察那里的动静。

If they have to leave home, they must wear a face mask and observe good personal hygiene.

若外出,要佩戴口罩,注意个人卫生。

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exposure

难度：3星常用词汇，属常用6000词

英汉解释

n.暴露；揭露；胶片；曝光时间；(在电视、报纸等媒体上的)亮相；挨冻

参考例句

用作名词 (n.)

The girl is very pleased to take exposure on TV singing program.

这个女孩对在电视歌唱节目上露面非常高兴。

He nearly died of exposure on the cold mountain.

他在寒冷的高山上差一点没有冻死。

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forecast

难度：4星核心词汇，属常用3000词

英汉解释

n.预测；预报

v.预测

参考例句

用作名词 (n.)

Despite the good weather forecast, the next morning was as wet as ever.

尽管预报称天气很好，但次日上午仍阴雨绵绵。

用作动词 (v.)

Next year's growth rate is forecast at just 1%.

据预测,第二年的增长率仅仅只有1%25。

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decline

难度：4星核心词汇，属常用3000词

英汉解释

v.下降；减少；变弱；拒绝；倾斜

n.衰微；跌落；晚年

参考例句

用作动词 (v.)

I wish prices would decline.

但愿物价下降。

用作名词 (n.)

This decline in vigour with the passing of time is called ageing.

这种随着时间流逝的活力衰退就叫做衰老。

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